Stumo Blog

What actually happens if we ditch NAFTA?

By Michael Stumo President-elect Trump promises to renegotiate NAFTA and withdraw if he does not get what he wants. What actually would happen if we withdrew from NAFTA?

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GOP Globalists' Next Strategy: TPP with Japan only

By Michael Stumo Beware of the counter-attack of the establishment.  Chairmen Hatch and Brady are trying to pivot from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to a new trade deal with Japan. 

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New report on dumb economic studies of trade deals

By Michael Stumo The US International Trade Commission (USITC) and private think tanks usually do "studies" to project the impacts of trade deals. We now have more information on how freakishly wrong those studies are.

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The working class election

By Michael Stumo While identity politics was a big part of the media's election narrative, those issues did not actually drive voters' election choices. Instead, exit polls showed they voted on the basis of the economy, not identity.

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Should a new trade policy focus upon performance or merely process?

By Michael Stumo I was in Washington last week discussing future trade policy with both GOP and Dem offices. What struck me is the focus on process in trade deals and a discomfort with performance based goals.

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Should Trumpian trade policy focus upon bilateral deals?

By Michael Stumo President-elect Trump said, in a video yesterday, that the first action he will take as President is to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Thank goodness.

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Election Earthquake - The Working Class and Trade

By Michael Stumo On Tuesday, November 8, in the evening, there was an earthquake. In the course of a few hours late that day, the expectations of most (but not all) flipped from an obvious Clinton victory to a massive and widespread Trump victory. Trade issues and the working class were the deciding factors.

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What CPA is Doing for You in DC This Week

By Michael Stumo Building upon, and solidifying, our bipartisan gains on trade is crucial right now.  The TPP is dead. Trump and the House Democrats agree on a surprisingly long list of trade issues. The working class voters decided the election, in large part on the trade issue, and Trump won. Dems are reeling from the rejection of working class voters. CPA trade issues are working class issues that have now become much more popular.

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When the Dust Settles: A Bipartisan Way Forward on Trade

by Michael Stumo The Donald Trump win was a shock to Clinton supporters and apparently a shock to Trump’s own aides. What does his win mean for trade policy and the partisan positioning? 

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Rational Nationalism: The bipartisan antidote to globalism's failures

by Michael Stumo This is a great election season.  Why? Because the disparity between the utopian globalist elite and the various flavors (good and bad) of nationalism is in stark relief. We have a great opportunity for a reset whoever wins.Yes, yes, I know that the political discourse is ugly. Trump is favored by his base as the molotov cocktail that can blow up all that his supporters dislike in Washington. Clinton is favored by her base as the steady, experienced hand that can keep us from the Trumpian apocalypse.

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