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Research

The CPA is Washington’s leading organization fighting for a new trade policy to deliver balanced trade, restored health for American industries, broadly-shared economic growth, and more jobs for American workers.  Learn about the key trade issues impacting the US economy that must be solved. Research by CPA staff takes a deeper look at these issues and which policy changes can lead to dramatic improvement.

CPA Research

US Trade Deficit Hits $621B in 2018; Goods Deficit & China Deficit Hit New Records

March 06, 2019
By Jeff Ferry, CPA Chief Economist Data published this morning by the Department of Commerce show that US trade figures continued to worsen in December and for the year 2018, in response to the strengthening dollar, a fast-growing US economy, and a surge in imports to front-run last year’s tariffs,...

Chinese Provinces Still Quietly Implementing Made in China 2025

March 05, 2019
By Steven Byers, CPA Senior Economist Last summer, Chinese officials began talking about the liberalization of Chinese markets, in response to criticism of the highly nationalist and protectionist Made in China 2025 (MIC2025) strategic plan. That was in response to growing trade tensions with the US, and other foreign governments and...

Solar Power Deployments Up 4.5% Last Year as Tariffs Stimulate Manufacturing Expansion

February 14, 2019
By Jeff Ferry, CPA Chief Economist The solar power industry enjoyed a healthy 2018, with solar deployments rising 4.5 percent to 11.6 Gigawatts installed last year.
Currency Misalignment

Working Paper: Quantifying Economic Growth and Job Creation from a Competitive Dollar

February 14, 2019
This Working Paper presents the results of a CPA econometric model testing how much dollar adjustment is needed to balance US trade in six years and the dramatic economic benefits that would result from the adjustment. by Jeff Ferry (Chief Economist) and Steven Byers (Senior Economist)

New Anti-Tariff Study Again Cries “Wolf”

February 08, 2019
Erroneous 2018 Predictions Repeated  By Steven Byers, CPA Senior Economist Nearly a year after predicting 470,000 jobs would be lost due to President Trump’s tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, Trade Partnership Worldwide has published an updated study titled “Estimated Impacts of Tariffs on the US Economy and Workers.” The new report examines potential future impacts from...

Trade Deficit Moderates to $49.3B in November; China Deficit Improves Sharply

February 07, 2019
By Jeff Ferry CPA Chief Economist Trade data for November 2018 published Wednesday by the Department of Commerce indicates that the Trump Administration’s tariffs may finally be improving our balance of trade. 

Why China is Losing the Trade War

February 05, 2019
By Jeff Ferry, CPA Chief Economist Three things happened last week that made me feel more confident than ever that US tariffs are working and China is losing the so-called “trade war,” which is not a war at all but simply a battle to enable the US economy to stand...

Huawei’s Employee Bonus Program For Stealing Technology

January 30, 2019
By Jeff Ferry, CPA Chief Economist On January 16th, a grand jury in the US District Court in Seattle, Washington indicted Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei for theft of trade secrets and attempting to corruptly obstruct a civil lawsuit. 

GM Cutbacks Due to Offshoring, Not Tariffs

December 20, 2018
By Jeff Ferry, CPA Research Director General Motors is having a very good year in 2018. That’s right. You read that right, a good year. Maybe even an excellent year.

Top Five Cases of Huawei IP Theft and Patent Infringement

December 13, 2018
By Jeff Ferry, CPA Research Director Last week, Canadian authorities arrested the Chief Financial Officer of Huawei, Sabrina Meng Wanzhou. The US government alleges that she was involved in a plot to circumvent US sanctions on Iran by using a dummy company, secretly owned by Huawei, to sell networking equipment...

CPA Response to Tax Foundation Claims on Effects of Tariff Actions

December 11, 2018
By Jeff Ferry, CPA Research Director On Dec. 6th, the Tax Foundation published a brief document claiming that the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration earlier this year impose a $42 billion cost on Americans. The claim is wrong and based on misleading analysis, as a quick look at the...

Monthly US Trade Deficit Rises $0.9B to $55.5B, Advanced Technology Deficit Surges 14% in October

December 06, 2018
Non-competitive Dollar, Front-Running of Tariffs Drive Up October Deficit, Imports By Jeff Ferry, CPA Research DirectorThe monthly US trade deficit rose by $0.9 billion in October, reaching $55.5 billion, as exports fell slightly while imports rose by $600 million. The monthly data suggests that tariffs have yet to impact the...

The Tariffs Are Working

December 04, 2018
By Jeff Ferry, CPA Research Director Since January, the Trump administration has implemented five major tariff policies, on the solar panel, washing machine, steel, and aluminum industries, as well as the so-called Section 301 tariffs affecting $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, chiefly in intermediate manufactured goods.

Why Tariffs Are Not Raising Prices

December 04, 2018
By Jeff Ferry, CPA Research Director It’s now eight months after the first set of Trump administration tariffs went into effect, and so far the much-feared economic costs of tariffs have yet to appear.

White Paper: Measuring the Impact of the Steel Tariffs on the US Economy

November 27, 2018
By Jeff Ferry and Steven L. Byers

CPA Economic Model Shows Steel Tariffs Have Created Jobs

November 27, 2018
By Jeff Ferry and Steven L Byers When the Trump administration implemented tariffs on steel and aluminum in March 2018, many economists predicted job losses and consumer price hikes.

Experts Say China Telecom Diverted US Internet Traffic Through China

November 08, 2018
By Jeff Ferry, CPA Research Director Three Internet security experts have accused state-owned telecom giant China Telecom of diverting internal US Internet traffic through China.

Memo: USMCA Rules of Origin, Further Details

November 06, 2018
By Jeff Ferry, CPA Research Director The USMCA Agreement contains rules of origin for the automotive industry that will have a wide-ranging effect on the auto industry.

US Manufacturing Resurgence is Broad-Based

November 02, 2018
By Jeff Ferry, CPA Research Director Manufacturing employment in the US has now shown year-on-year growth of more than 250,000 employees for six consecutive months, the largest and most sustained manufacturing job growth we’ve seen since 1998.

US Trade Deficit Hits $54 Billion in September

November 02, 2018
Widening Trade Deficit Contrasts with Strong Jobs Picture, as China Trade Deficit Sets Another Record   The federal government’s employment report for October showed the US economy continues to perform strongly, with job growth of 250,000 in the month, including 32,000 added manufacturing jobs. Unemployment continues to be low and...